Parlay Bets in the NFL

Introduction

In gaming terms,”parlay” means to bet on at least 2 events, letting the winnings ride after every win. Normally you shed, but when you win, and depending in part on the number of events were parlayed, you’ll win big.

In betting odds explained betting, the bettor can parlay wins if the games happen simultaneously. This may be done either”off the board” or with parlay cards. This page address both methods and included three common types of parlay cards. What I hope to communicate through this webpage is that randomly creating selections on parlay cards is a lousy way to wager sports and results in a high house edge. However, the sharp bettor can take advantage of line movements off common margins of victory in the NFL and put on a powerful advantage, of 30 percent or more, on half stage parlay cards.

Let me make a disclaimer to take any win probabilities and expected returns on this particular page with a grain of salt. I had to make assumptions about how stage spreads on parlay cards have been intentionally moved to an integer or not an integer, based upon the card. My data also does not reflect the truth that lines often move from the time that the parlay card is published to the period of this match. On the one hand, the card manufacturer may carefully set the point spreads to minimize player edge. On the flip side, it’s an established fact that final lines are sharper than launching lines, and the participant can make the most of those line movements by putting in parlay cards at the last moment. After all, I think there are big advantages to be gained with half point parlay cards, but the advantages can’t be calculated exactly. They are greater or smaller.

After reading this site, skeptics may wonder if it is really simple to beat half point parlay cards, why isn’t everybody doing this? A lot of bettors are. Sports books are nervous about taking them, because they really do tend to get hammered on the exact same side of particular games that are hot. But, I imagine to many professional gamblers, they Aren’t a viable advantage play since:

It is challenging to get a lot of money down. The most you can usually bet on a single parlay card is $200, and just a wager of $100 may set off red flags if all of the choices are correlated on the sexy sides.
They are time consuming to bubble .
It is feast or famine. Broadly speaking, the more legs the player makes, the greater the advantage. For instance, an 8-leg half stage parlay pays most 200 to 1. Obviously, such long-shot bets usually lose.

You’ll need to decide for yourself whether parlay cards will be for you. However, should you bet them, ideally you will discover a thing or 2 in my analysis.

Methodology

All win percentages within this page are based on the 4,950 games played in the 1994 to 2012 seasons. Except as noted, all selections refer to betting against the spread. I don’t advise betting totals on parlay cards unless there is a considerable line motion.

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